Is Janet Yellen an Inflation Hawk?
March 21, 2014 - This week Janet Yellen held her first post FOMC Press Conference, and stock and bond markets dropped sharply when she mentioned that a Fed interest rate hike could come as little as 6 months after the end of the Fed's final "taper". Investors had not been expecting a move so quickly.
Did Janet misspeak? Was she misinterpreted? Is she more concerned about inflation than many believe?
I think the answer is YES to all of the above.
While discussion of what the Fed might do in 2015 is all speculation for now, it is worth noting that there are some early signs that the huge amount of money the Fed has printed in recent years is starting to find its way into the real economy.
Specifically money growth (M1 and M2) and bank lending have both picked up sharply in recent months:
This may be just another "headfake" as we've seen in recent years (see commentary from Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett here).
Or the Fed - which has been desperately flooring the monetary gas pedal since 2009 - may have finally gotten the economy out of neutral and into "drive".
If that's the case Janet and her Fed colleagues will be on alert for any sudden increase in inflation - which could be made worse by a major drought that has already sent food prices rocketing higher. And in case you don't think Janet considers herself responsible for controlling inflation, see what she had to tell us - in her own words - during her interview for the film:
She may not be able to control inflation in coming years - but she definitely considers it her job to try.
If I had to bet I'd wager that the economy stays weak, housing continues to soften, and the stock market folds in the next year - but with the Fed still printing $660 billion new dollars per year any sustained uptick in money growth, bank lending and inflation could lead to faster Fed tightening than anyone expects.
Since 2009 investors have been lulled into thinking the Fed will always have their back. But since World War II every single US recession has been preceded by the Fed raising rates to fight inflation.
My advice? Don't bet the ranch on this time being different.
- Jim Bruce - Producer/DirectorContinue reading
Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve -- now available on DVD and Download.
Additional discounts available for orders of six or more discs.
Email Carly@MoneyForNothingTheMovie.org for bulk pricing.
Host a public screening in partnership with local organizations in 5 EASY STEPS!
Money For Nothing: Inside The Federal Reserve is a great film to educate and entertain colleagues and prospective clients. If your company or firm is interested in hosting a private screening, these can take place in conference rooms or local cinemas.
To book a corporate screening:
A simple way for schools, colleges, and libraries to host a screening is to purchase an Educational DVD of Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve, which includes a license for public screenings on campus as well as unlimited in-classroom and library use.
Step 1: Ask your Professor or school Librarian to purchase an Educational DVD of Money For Nothing. (They can click here to pay via Credit Card, or email Jim@MoneyForNothingTheMovie.org to pay via Purchase Order or check).
Step 2: Pick a date and plan an event. Most people choose to have a Q&A afterward with Professors and/or members of the local financial community. The film's Director, Jim Bruce, is also available to appear either in person or via Skype for an additional cost.
Step 3: Contact us to arrange delivery of your complimentary promotional materials. We're also happy to post the event on our website and provide advice on how to plan a successful event.
We also include the following promotional materials:
For more information, email Jim at Jim@MoneyForNothingTheMovie.org/* *//* *//* */
Librarians- Further details about our Educational DVD can be found here.
President and CEO - Financial Insyghts, LLC
Former Head of Asset Finance - J.P. Morgan
Economist, Chairman - B.C.A. Research (1968-2002)
Founder - The Boeckh Investment Letter
Investor, Financial Historian
Chairman - Grantham, Mayo Van Otterloo
Derivatives Trader, Hedge Fund Manager
Founder and CEO - Minyanville.com
President - Millennium Wave Advisors
Author - Endgame
Washington Post columnist, Author - Bailout Nation
CEO - Fusion IQ
Economist, Forbes columnist, Author
President - A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Derivatives Expert, Hedge Fund Manager
Economist, Rutgers University Professor
Director, Center for Monetary and Financial History
Economist, Middlebury College Professor
Economist, Editor - Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
Scholar - The Brookings Institution
Author - The Fed
Economist, Author of "A History of the Federal Reserve"
Carnegie-Mellon University Professor
Chief Economist - International Monetary Fund
(2003 – 2007), University of Chicago Professor
Economist, New York University Professor
Chairman - Museum of American Finance
Chief Economist, Bank for International Settlements
(B.I.S.) (1995 – 2008)
Chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979 - 1987)
Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve (2010 - Present)
President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2004 - 2010)
Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve (1996 - 1999)
Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve (1994 - 1996)
Undersecretary of the Treasury (2001 -2003)
Executive V.P. of the New York Fed (1994 - 2001)
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2005 - Present)
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (1991 - 2011)
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2004 - Present)
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2006 - Present)
Economist, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (1998 - 2008)
Senior V.P., Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (1993 - 2005)
Cast & CrewContinue reading
Money For Nothing is Jim Bruce's directorial debut. Jim was Editor/Writer/Co-Producer of Sierra Leone's Refugee All Stars - finalist for the 2006 International Documentary Association's Feature Film of the Year. Jim has also worked as an editor on acclaimed documentaries (including The King of Kong and Dambe: The Mali Project), and as an assistant editor on Hollywood films such as Kinsey, Insomnia, X-Men: The Last Stand, and The Incredible Hulk. He was a Visiting Professor at Middlebury College in 2007.
Jim has been a student of financial markets for many years, and began writing a newsletter in 2006 warning about the oncoming financial crisis. His short trades in 2007 and 2008 helped finance a significant portion of Money For Nothing’s budget.
Jim has appeared on CNBC, MSNBC, NPR, Bloomberg TV, and Fox Business, and has spoken at Harvard Business School and the Dutch Central Bank. Read more about his background in this Washington Post profile.
Liev Schreiber is a Tony Award-winning and Emmy/Golden Globe-nominated actor. His work has ranged from major Hollywood productions such as X-Men Origins: Wolverine and The Sum of All Fears to critically-acclaimed independent films such as The Daytrippers and A Walk on the Moon.
Liev is one of the most highly regarded narrators working today, and is currently the voice of HBO Sports. Liev also wrote and directed the 2005 award-winning film Everything Is Illuminated.
Bob is one of the most acclaimed documentary cinematographers working today. His recent credits include Waiting For Superman, the Academy Award-winning An Inconvenient Truth, the Academy Award-nominated My Architect, and The September Issue – winner of the 2009 Sundance Film Festival Cinematography Award.
Ariel has worked as a production manager and coordinator on over 50 commercials and music videos. She assisted in research on 2004's Citizen King, a PBS documentary exploring the last five years of Martin Luther King, Jr.'s life. Ariel holds a B.A. in Political Science from Vassar College and an M.A. in Social Theory from the University of Melbourne.
Before joining the team at Liberty Street Films, Jared worked for Benderspink Productions and in international distribution at Sierra Pictures. He holds a degree in film and media from Middlebury College, and his independent feature This Side of Innocence won the State of Vermont's 2007 Young Artist's Award for Excellence in the Visual Arts.
Onnalee Blank is an Emmy Award-winning sound mixer whose recent work includes Game of Thrones and Girls for HBO and Rectify for the Sundance Channel. She has previously worked in the music industry with Rick Rubin, Danny Elfman, Jimmy Jam, Terry Lewis and many others. She is passionate about the economy and when she came across Money for Nothing just had to be involved.
Nora holds Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Music Composition from The Juilliard School, received the 2003 ASCAP Morton Gould Young Composers Award, and is currently a fellow at the 2012 Sundance Composer's Lab. Her recent work includes the PBS documentary Turmoil & Triumph: The George Schultz Years, and independent films such as Stealing Summers, The Shattering, The Apocalypse According To Doris, and Joburg.Continue reading
It’s easy to organize a screening at a local movie theater, university, financial office,community hall, or even a private home.
And we’re here to help you arrange it.
Please email email@example.com and he can provide details and advice about various screening options.
"The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else."
- John Maynard Keynes (1936)
MONEY FOR NOTHING is a feature-length documentary about the Federal Reserve - made by a Team of AFI, Sundance, and Academy Award winners – that seeks to unveil America’s central bank and its impact on our economy and our society.
Current and former senior Fed officials, prominent economists, investors and traders provide unprecedented access and take viewers behind the curtain to debate the future of the world’s most powerful financial institution.
Digging beneath the surface of the 2008 crisis, Money For Nothing is the first film to ask why so many facets of our financial system seemed to self-destruct at the same time. For many economists and senior Fed officials, the answer is clear: the same Fed that put out 2008’s raging financial fire actually helped light the match years before.
As the global financial system continues to falter, the Federal Reserve finds itself at a crossroads. The choices it makes will greatly influence the kind of world our children and grandchildren inherit. How can the Federal Reserve steer our nation toward a more sustainable path? How can the American people – who the Fed was created to serve - influence an institution whose inner workings they may not understand?
The key tenet underlying Money For Nothing is our belief that a more fully and accurately informed public will promote greater accountability and more effective policies from our central bank - no matter the conclusions any individual draws from the film.Continue reading